Understanding the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in grassland dynamics in Kenya’s semi-arid pastures

Grassland biomes are one of the largest terrestrial ecosystems on the planet, providing critical ecological, social, and economic benefits. However, they are subjected to natural and anthropogenic stresses such as precipitation, temperature variability, and widespread land degradation. Invasive plant species, for example, pose enormous challenges regarding biodiversity loss and degradation. Therefore, we need to keep up with and improve our knowledge of how they change, especially over space and time, to make good decisions about their productivity, management, and conservation. However, questions remain in (i) mapping and invasion science regarding a methodological framework for mapping invasive plant species (Opuntia stricta) using satellite remote sensing, (ii) understanding the spatiotemporal relationship between grassland greenness, communities, precipitation, temperature, and grazing factors, and (iii) our understanding of the spatial variation in grassland community types and their palatability probability. As a result, this study aimed to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics in Kenya’s heterogeneous semi-arid grasslands by characterising the grassland into grassland communities and palatable and non-palatable plants. Additionally, it evaluates the intra-seasonal drivers of grassland changes at a site-specific level in 2019. The results show that combining Sentinel-2 spectral data, vegetation, and topographic indices is sufficient to map Opuntia stricta in a complex, heterogeneous semi-arid landscape. Additionally, precipitation, temperature and grazing, though at different times, are the major drivers of intra-seasonal grassland dynamics in semi-arid areas. Furthermore, the study found Sentinel-2 imagery to be adequate in achieving fine-scale spatial variations in grassland communities and inferring palatability probability in heterogeneous semi-arid grasslands. Finally, these findings and recommendations can help us better understand grassland dynamics and uncertainty modelling, as well as improve our understanding of plant-animal interactions, which can lead to management implications for rangeland management in terms of productivity, conservation, and rehabilitation

Alliance Motives among Manufacturing SMES: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

This study was designed to investigate the effect of environmental-based motives on firm performance. The study targeted manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises based in Kenya whose performance has been negatively affected by high industry competition, low technology uptake, and industry regulation. The study was geared towards establishing the environmental-based motives pushing and pulling manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises toward strategic alliance formation. To this end, the study was set to investigate whether compliance with government regulation, the need to grow market share, and the need to increase customer base motivates manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises in Kenya to form strategic alliances. The target population for the study consisted of 74 SMEs and the study adopted descriptive and explanatory research designs and collected data from company CEOs or senior managers. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the survey data. The study findings indicated that environmental-based motives have a positive and significant effect on the performance of manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises in Kenya (Adj R2 = 0.484). Based on these findings, the study concluded that environmental-based motives of compliance with the government regulation, market share, and customer base motivate manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises to form strategic alliances and that these motives have a positive and significant effect on firm performance. The study contributed to the general body of knowledge by bridging the contextual and empirical gaps identified after the literature review. The study recommends that top management teams in the manufacturing industry should map environmental-based motives and align such motives to specific aspects of their value chain activities

Validating commonly used drought indicators in Kenya

Drought is a complex natural hazard that can occur in any climate and affect every aspect of society. To better prepare and mitigate the impacts of drought, various indicators can be applied to monitor and forecast its onset, intensity, and severity. Though widely used, little is known about the efficacy of these indicators which restricts their role in important decisions. Here, we provide the first validation of 11 commonly-used drought indicators by comparing them to pasture and browse condition data collected on the ground in Kenya. These ground-based data provide an absolute and relative assessment of the conditions, similar to some of the drought indicators. Focusing on grass and shrublands of the arid and semi-arid lands, we demonstrate there are strong relationships between ground-based pasture and browse conditions, and satellite-based drought indicators. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) has the best relationship, achieving a mean r2 score of 0.70 when fitted against absolute pasture condition. Similarly, the 3-month Vegetation Health Index (VHI3M) reached a mean r2 score of 0.62 when fitted against a relative pasture condition. In addition, we investigated the Kenya-wide drought onset threshold for the 3-month average Vegetation Condition Index (VCI3M; VCI3M<35), which is used by the country’s drought early warning system. Our results show large disparities in thresholds across different counties. Understanding these relationships and thresholds are integral to developing effective and efficient drought early warning systems (EWS). Our work offers evidence for the effectiveness of some of these indicators as well as practical thresholds for their use

Assessing drivers of intra-seasonal grassland dynamics in a Kenyan savannah using digital repeat photography

Understanding grassland dynamics and their relationship to weather and grazing is critical for pastoralists whose livelihoods depend on grassland productivity. Studies investigating the impacts of climate and human factors on inter-seasonal grassland dynamics have focused mostly on changes to vegetation structure. Yet, quantifying the impact of these on the inter-seasonal dynamics of specific grassland communities is not known. This study uses digital repeat photography to examine how intra-seasonal grassland dynamics of different grassland communities are affected by precipitation, temperature, and grazing in a heterogeneous semi-arid savannah in Kenya. A low-cost digital repeat camera network allowed for fine-scale temporal and spatial variability analysis of grassland dynamics and grazing intensity. Over all grass communities, our results show precipitation driving mainly early-season and in some cases mid-season flushing, temperature driving end-of-season senescence, and grazing influencing mid-season declines. Yet, our study quantifies how these three drivers do not uniformly impact grassland species communities. Specifically, Cynodon and Cynodon/Bothriochloa communities are rapidly and positively associated with precipitation, where mid-season declines in Cynodon communities are associated with grazing and late-season declines in Cynodon/Bothriochloa communities are associated with temperature increases. Setaria communities, on the other hand, have weaker associations with the drivers, with limited positive associations with precipitation and grazing. Kunthii/Digitaria diverse communities had no association with the three drivers. Highly diverse mixed communities were associated with increased precipitation and temperature, as well as lower intensity grazing. Our research sheds light on the complex interactions between plants, animals, and weather. Furthermore, this study also demonstrates the potential of digital repeated photography to inform about fine-scale spatial and temporal patterns of semi-arid grassland vegetation and grazing, with the goal of assisting in the formulations of management practises that better capture the intra-annual variability of highly heterogeneous dryland systems

Mapping Opuntia stricta in the arid and semi-arid environment of Kenya using sentinel-2 imagery and ensemble machine learning classifiers

Globally, grassland biomes form one of the largest terrestrial covers and present critical social–ecological benefits. In Kenya, Arid and Semi-arid Lands (ASAL) occupy 80% of the landscape and are critical for the livelihoods of millions of pastoralists. However, they have been invaded by Invasive Plant Species (IPS) thereby compromising their ecosystem functionality. Opuntia stricta, a well-known IPS, has invaded the ASAL in Kenya and poses a threat to pastoralism, leading to livestock mortality and land degradation. Thus, identification and detailed estimation of its cover is essential for drawing an effective management strategy. The study aimed at utilizing the Sentinel-2 multispectral sensor to detect Opuntia stricta in a heterogeneous ASAL in Laikipia County, using ensemble machine learning classifiers. To illustrate the potential of Sentinel-2, the detection of Opuntia stricta was based on only the spectral bands as well as in combination with vegetation and topographic indices using Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF) classifiers to detect the abundance. Study results showed that the overall accuracies of Sentinel 2 spectral bands were 80% and 84.4%, while that of combined spectral bands, vegetation, and topographic indices was 89.2% and 92.4% for XGBoost and RF classifiers, respectively. The inclusion of topographic indices that enhance characterization of biological processes, and vegetation indices that minimize the influence of soil and the effects of atmosphere, contributed by improving the accuracy of the classification. Qualitatively, Opuntia stricta spatially was found along river banks, flood plains, and near settlements but limited in forested areas. Our results demonstrated the potential of Sentinel-2 multispectral sensors to effectively detect and map Opuntia stricta in a complex heterogeneous ASAL, which can support conservation and rangeland management policies that aim to map and list threatened areas, and conserve the biodiversity and productivity of rangeland ecosystems

A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition

Agricultural drought, which occurs due to a significant reduction in the moisture required for vegetation growth, is the most complex amongst all drought categories. The onset of agriculture drought is slow and can occur over vast areas with varying spatial effects, differing in areas with a particular vegetation land cover or specific agro-ecological sub-regions. These spatial variations imply that monitoring and forecasting agricultural drought require complex models that consider the spatial variations in a given region of interest. Hierarchical Bayesian models are suited for modelling such complex systems. Using partially pooled data with sub-groups that characterise spatial differences, these models can capture the sub-group variation while allowing flexibility and information sharing between these sub-groups. This paper's objective is to improve the accuracy and precision of agricultural drought forecasting in spatially diverse regions with a hierarchical Bayesian model. Results showed that the hierarchical Bayesian model was better at capturing the variability for the different agro-ecological zones and vegetation land covers compared to a regular Bayesian auto-regression distributed lags model. The forecasted vegetation condition and associated drought probabilities were more accurate and precise with the hierarchical Bayesian model at 4- to 10-week lead times. Forecasts from the hierarchical model exhibited higher hit rates with a low probability of false alarms for drought events in semi-arid and arid zones. The hierarchical Bayesian model also showed good transferable forecast skills over counties not included in the training data

Forecasting vegetation condition with a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lags (BARDL) model

Droughts form a large part of climate- or weather-related disasters reported globally. In Africa, pastoralists living in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are the worse affected. Prolonged dry spells that cause vegetation stress in these regions have resulted in the loss of income and livelihoods. To curb this, global initiatives like the Paris Agreement and the United Nations recognised the need to establish early warning systems (EWSs) to save lives and livelihoods. Existing EWSs use a combination of satellite earth observation (EO)-based biophysical indicators like the vegetation condition index (VCI) and socio-economic factors to measure and monitor droughts. Most of these EWSs rely on expert knowledge in estimating upcoming drought conditions without using forecast models. Recent research has shown that the use of robust algorithms like auto-regression, Gaussian processes, and artificial neural networks can provide very skilled models for forecasting vegetation condition at short- to medium-range lead times. However, to enable preparedness for early action, forecasts with a longer lead time are needed. In a previous paper, a Gaussian process model and an auto-regression model were used to forecast VCI in pastoral communities in Kenya. The objective of this research was to build on this work by developing an improved model that forecasts vegetation conditions at longer lead times. The premise of this research was that vegetation condition is controlled by factors like precipitation and soil moisture; thus, we used a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lag (BARDL) modelling approach, which enabled us to include the effects of lagged information from precipitation and soil moisture to improve VCI forecasting. The results showed a ∼2-week gain in the forecast range compared to the univariate auto-regression model used as a baseline. The R2 scores for the Bayesian ARDL model were 0.94, 0.85, and 0.74, compared to the auto-regression model's R2 of 0.88, 0.77, and 0.65 for 6-, 8-, and 10-week lead time, respectively

Effect of early tranexamic acid administration on mortality, hysterectomy, and other morbidities in women with post-partum haemorrhage (WOMAN): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Post-partum haemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal death worldwide. Early administration of tranexamic acid reduces deaths due to bleeding in trauma patients. We aimed to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, hysterectomy, and other relevant outcomes in women with post-partum haemorrhage. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women aged 16 years and older with a clinical diagnosis of post-partum haemorrhage after a vaginal birth or caesarean section from 193 hospitals in 21 countries. We randomly assigned women to receive either 1 g intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. If bleeding continued after 30 min, or stopped and restarted within 24 h of the first dose, a second dose of 1 g of tranexamic acid or placebo could be given. Patients were assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. We originally planned to enrol 15 000 women with a composite primary endpoint of death from all-causes or hysterectomy within 42 days of giving birth. However, during the trial it became apparent that the decision to conduct a hysterectomy was often made at the same time as randomisation. Although tranexamic acid could influence the risk of death in these cases, it could not affect the risk of hysterectomy. We therefore increased the sample size from 15 000 to 20 000 women in order to estimate the effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of death from post-partum haemorrhage. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN76912190 (Dec 8, 2008); ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00872469; and PACTR201007000192283. Findings Between March, 2010, and April, 2016, 20 060 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive tranexamic acid (n=10 051) or placebo (n=10 009), of whom 10 036 and 9985, respectively, were included in the analysis. Death due to bleeding was significantly reduced in women given tranexamic acid (155 [1·5%] of 10 036 patients vs 191 [1·9%] of 9985 in the placebo group, risk ratio [RR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·65–1·00; p=0·045), especially in women given treatment within 3 h of giving birth (89 [1·2%] in the tranexamic acid group vs 127 [1·7%] in the placebo group, RR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52–0·91; p=0·008). All other causes of death did not differ significantly by group. Hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (358 [3·6%] patients in the tranexamic acid group vs 351 [3·5%] in the placebo group, RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·88–1·07; p=0·84). The composite primary endpoint of death from all causes or hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (534 [5·3%] deaths or hysterectomies in the tranexamic acid group vs 546 [5·5%] in the placebo group, RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·09; p=0·65). Adverse events (including thromboembolic events) did not differ significantly in the tranexamic acid versus placebo group. Interpretation Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding in women with post-partum haemorrhage with no adverse effects. When used as a treatment for postpartum haemorrhage, tranexamic acid should be given as soon as possible after bleeding onset. Funding London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Pfizer, UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya

Droughts are a recurring hazard in sub-Saharan Africa, that can wreak huge socioeconomic costs. Acting early based on alerts provided by early warning systems (EWS) can potentially provide substantial mitigation, reducing the financial and human cost. However, existing EWS tend only to monitor current, rather than forecast future, environmental and socioeconomic indicators of drought, and hence are not always sufficiently timely to be effective in practice. Here we present a novel method for forecasting satellite-based indicators of vegetation condition. Specifically, we focused on the 3-month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI3M) over pastoral livelihood zones in Kenya, which is the indicator used by the Kenyan National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). Using data from MODIS and Landsat, we apply linear autoregression and Gaussian process modelling methods and demonstrate high forecasting skill several weeks ahead. As a bench mark we predicted the drought alert marker used by NDMA (VCI3M<35). Both of our models were able to predict this alert marker four weeks ahead with a hit rate of around 89% and a false alarm rate of around 4%, or 81% and 6% respectively six weeks ahead. The methods developed here can thus identify a deteriorating vegetation condition well and sufficiently in advance to help disaster risk managers act early to support vulnerable communities and limit the impact of a drought hazard